Yankees Target: 2012

Here's a news flash for Yankees fans: Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman isn't planning on going full guns to win another championship in 2010.

Mr. Cashman has been quoted over and over again in the New York tabloids in the weeks since the 2009 World Series victory, and he's said all the right things, never showing his hand (at least outwardly). He's said that free agents Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Andy Pettitte are all terrific players, and he'd speak to their agents first before "engaging" other free agents. He's also said the Yankees plan to keep the 2010 payroll in the same ballpark as last year's - about 201 million. That would leave him about 21 million to spend this off season (when you factor in the expiring contracts and current player raises).

But one thing Cashman said caught my eye. He was asked about how difficult it would be to let World Series heroes such as Damon and Matsui leave the team as free agents. He responded by bringing up Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein, who faced a similar dilemma after the 2004 World Series. Epstein let all-star free agents Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe and Orlando Cabrera walk in the 2004 off season, and as Cashman smartly pointed out, they "still won another World Series three years later".

Let's read between the lines here. If Cashman considers Epstein winning 2 World Series in 4 years a terrific accomplishment, wouldn't he consider it a success to pull that off himself? Of course he would.

So Yankees fans, if you think Brian Cashman is going to sign John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Matt Holliday and trade for Roy Halladay this off season in an all-out effort to win in 2010, think again. Cashman, like Epstein, is a smart businessman, and has a long-term plan for the Yankees franchise. He isn't about to alter that plan just to win back-to-back championships.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Cashman won't try to win next year, I'm just saying he's going to try to win with players that will make the Yankees better not only in 2010, but also in 2011, 2012 and beyond. He's in it for the long haul.

The fact is, the Yankees three-peat (sorry Pat Riley) in 1998, 1999 and 2000 spoiled us all. If the Yankees don't win another championship until 2012, Brian Cashman will still consider his plan a success. You should too.

Out with the Old?

One of the toughest decisions New York Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman faces this off season is whether to resign his top three free agents: Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon and Andy Pettitte.

Now, if these three players were in their primes, this would be a no brainer: he'd resign all three. But Matsui and Damon will be 36 next season, and both will likely want at least a three-year deal. Pettitte will be 38, but would likely want a one-year deal.

Pettitte's the easy call here. He he wants to play, sign him to a one-year deal for about 10 million. It's worth the risk of injury or ineffectiveness, since the Yankees are only committing to one year.

Signing either Damon or Matsui to a three-year deal would be an enormous mistake. The Yankees already have Jorge Posada (who will be 38 in 2010), Derek Jeter (who will be 36) and Alex Rodriguez (34 and coming off hip surgery) on their roster for 2010 season and beyond. Can they really afford to add another 35+ player to that list, no matter how talented they are? The answer is absolutely not.

Johnny Damon has had a great four years with the Yankees, and finished up with a terrific World Series. But he's a terrible fielder with one of the worst throwing arms in the league, and his legs are slowly giving out on him (the Yankees should take that pulled hamstring in game 6 as a sign of future trouble). If he looks this gimpy in 2009, imagine what he'll look like in 2012!

Hideki Matsui was also an outstanding signing for the Yankees, and he too had a masterful World Series. But that should not mask the fact that he can no longer play the field at all. He's still a great hitter, but he can be replaced easily with fresher legs. Matsui does give the Yankees a presence in Asia, but it doesn't bring in enough money to justify signing him to a three-year deal.

With the Yankees 2009 World Series victory, Brain Cashman is playing with the house's money. He can afford to bring in some new, younger blood in 2010, and be spared the wrath of irate fans longing for their World Series heroes. The Yankees have lost much better hitters, and even bigger fan favorites (Paul O'Neill and Bernie Williams come to mind) and ended up doing just fine.

Now, if there's a limited market for Damon and Matsui (which I'm afraid there might be) and either is willing to return for one year, now we're talking.

My guess is we'll see rookie Austin Jackson manning centerfield for the Yankees in 2010, Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner in left, and either Damon or Matsui (more likely Matsui) at DH on a one year deal. If that happens, the Yankees will be in terrific shape.

Note to Free Agents: Sign Early!

Here's a tip for this year's MLB free agent class: don't wait around until January for the best deal. Sign early, and take the best deal you can get before the calendars switch to 2010, or risk taking a lot less as spring training draws closer.

Don't believe me? Take a look at the lesson Angels outfielder Bobby Abreu learned. Last off-season, he started off thinking he was going to get a 3-year, 34 million dollar deal from the Yankees. He ended up waiting...and waiting...and waiting...for a deal that never came. He ended up taking a 5 million dollar one-year deal with the Angels right before spring training started.

This year? Abreu was a free agent again, but this time, he didn't wait around. He signed a 2-year, 18 million dollar deal before the free agency period even began. He wasn't about to make that same mistake again.

Last year, the players who signed early, such as the Phillies Raul Ibanez, got great deals (Ibanez got 3-years, 36 million). The players who waited? They got a fraction of what they envisioned, and in some cases were forced into retirement.

So...the clock is ticking. Especially for those free agent DH/outfielder types who are over 35. This means you Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Jim Thome, Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield, Mike Cameron, Jermaine Dye and countless others. There are only so many jobs available, and in this game of MLB musical chairs, you certainly don't want to be the last man standing.

World Series Heroes

The New York Yankees claimed their 27th World Series Championship on Wednesday night, defeating the Philadelphia Phillies in six games, thanks to some outstanding performances from some likely heroes and one unlikely hero:

Derek Jeter - As usual, Jeter hit over .400 for the series, and was especially effective against Phillies ace Cliff Lee, who none of the other Yankee batters could solve.

Johnny Damon - Also hit over .400 in what might have been his last games as a Yankee. His incredible at-bat in the 8th inning of game 4, and subsequent 2 steals on one pitch, were the turning point of the series.

Hideki Matsui - Despite not starting in 3 of the 6 games, Matsui managed to hit .615 for the series, with 3 home runs and 8 RBI. His 6 RBI performance in game 6 was one of the greatest in World Series history, and earned him the MVP. Matsui also could have been playing his final games in pinstripes.

Mariano Rivera - Was his usual dominant self, and somehow lowered his post-season ERA from 0.77 to 0.74 in the process. He single-handedly snuffed out the Phillies patented late-inning comebacks. When he entered each game, it was over.

Damaso Marte - In my mind, Marte should have been the series MVP. He masterfully handled the dangerous lefties Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in numerous key situations. His strikeout of Utley in the 7th inning of game 6 eliminated any chance the Phillies had to get back in the game. Would anyone have guessed Marte would be a key player in post-season before the playoffs started? I sure didn't...

Andy Pettitte - Gutted his way though two starts with not-so-great stuff, including the series clinching game 6 on 3-days rest. The Yankees had the right man on the mound when it counted. Pettitte now has 17 post-season wins, the most ever.

What do all of these players have in common? They've all won championships before. (Matsui, don't forget, won 3 titles in the Japanese league) It's difficult enough to win the World Series, but it's almost impossible to do without experienced players to lead the way.

Pettitte vs. Pedro

With only minutes until first pitch at Yankee Stadium, I figured I'd post a quick thought or two on game 6. Here's the question I have: why is the New York media acting like this is another 2004-like collapse?

Don't believe what you read in the papers: the Yankees clearly have the edge in this series the rest of the way, even though Pettitte goes on 3 days rest tonight. Would you want A.J. Burnett pitching in this spot? I wouldn't. Yankees manager Joe Girardi pitched Burnett in game 5 because it didn't matter if they lost. Now he's got Pettitte on the mound for game 6, the man he wants there with the season on the line, and if the Yankees somehow lose tonight, he's got CC Sabathia as the back-up for game 7.

I'm sticking with my prediction of a Yankees World Series win in SIX games. I think the Yanks will get to Pedro Martinez early, and the Phillies bullpen will have no answer for the Yankees in the late innings.

Mark it down: Yankees championship number 27 comes tonight in the Bronx. In about 4 hours or so, let the celebration begin!

1=27

The Philadelphia Phillies came within a tiny foul tip of making this a 2-2 World Series last night, but the Yankees' Johnny Damon (who had a brilliant at-bat against Phillies closer Brad Lidge) stayed alive on that foul tip, and now New York is 1 win away from championship number 27.

I could write for hours on the 9th inning only, but I'll try to keep it short here. If the Yankees win this series (and it's extremely likely they will), Johnny Damon has cemented his place in Yankee lore for eternity. He may have even earned himself a contract for next season in the space of five minutes.

Damon's at bat against Lidge will surely go down as one of the greatest in Yankees history, right up there with Paul O'Neill's at bat against Armando Benitez in 2000 World Series game 1. With two outs and no one on in the top of the 9th, Damon fouled off slider after slider (including that teeny-tiny foul tip with 2 strikes), finally getting a base hit after 10+ pitches. Then on the first pitch, Damon stole two bases, getting a great jump on Lidge to grab the first bag, then smartly heading for third when Lidge failed to cover the base (Phillies third baseman Pedro Feliz had vacated the base to cover second with "the shift" on Mark Teixeira). I've been watching baseball for more than 30 years, and have seen thousands of games, and I've never seen that done, even once.

Damon on third changed the entire complexion of the inning, keeping Lidge from throwing his slider, for fear of allowing Damon to score on a pitch in the dirt. Lidge subsequently hit Teixeira with a pitch, gave up a double to Alex Rodriguez on a fastball right down the middle to score Damon, and then a 2-run single to Jorge Posada. Mariano Rivera enters for the bottom of the ninth, and 8 pitches later, game over.

The reason I say the Phillies were a foul tip away from winning themselves? If the game had stayed tied, Phil Coke would have been the pitcher, with the crowd going wild in a 4-4 game. A recipe for disaster for the Yankees. It almost certainly would have resulted in a Phillies walk-off win.

Phillies manager Charlie Manuel almost got away with pitching Joe Blanton last night, and saving ace Cliff Lee for tonight. If not for that teeny tiny foul tip, Manuel is a genius this morning. Now, the Phillies backs are against the wall, and Manuel needs not only a second masterful performance from Lee tonight, but a miracle in the Bronx in games 6 and 7. A game of inches indeed.

Back in Control

With the Yankees 8-5 win over the Phillies last night, the New York Yankees are back in control of the 2009 World Series. If the Phillies win, they'll now have to do it back at Yankee Stadium, in either game 6 or game 7 (sorry Jimmy Rollins). The Yankees, on the other hand, could wrap it up in 5 games in Philadelphia, but at worst will get another chance to play at home.

Some other positive developments for the Yankees:
* Alex Rodriguez broke of of his World Series slump with a home run. He should be able to relax for the rest of the series, which is bad news for the Phillies.
* Nick Swisher broke out of his playoff-long slump with a double and a home run. Look for Swisher to be back in the line-up again tonight.
* Joba Chamberlain and Damaso Marte looked great in the bullpen, perhaps finally giving Joe Girardi the "bridge" to Mariano Rivera he's been searching for the entire post-season, since Phil Hughes has shown he can no longer hack it.
* Girardi's moves in game 3 paid off yet again, especially his decisions to pitch Marte the entire 8th inning, and pinch-hitting Matsui in the 8th (he hit a home run).

The negatives? Phil Hughes. Joe Girardi can no longer afford to pitch Hughes in a big spot. As great as he was in the regular season, he's been lost in the post-season. In this World Series, he's given up 3 runs in 1/3 of an inning. Not good...

Now, for today's big decision: the starting pitchers for game 4. Tonight's game is now the pivotal game in the series, and on Friday, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel announced he's throwing Joe Blanton instead of opting for Cliff Lee on short rest. Joe Girardi is going with CC Sabathia on 3 days rest, just like he did in ALCS game 4.

First, the Phillies side. I think Manuel is making a mistake here. I know Blanton pitched great in last year's World Series, but the Yankees always tee off on him. That combined with the Yankees throwing their ace Sabathia, most likely will result in a Phillies loss. Manuel's theory is that Lee has never pitched on 3 days rest. There's a first time for everything, isn't there?

On the Yanks side, I think Girardi's doing the right thing. Chad Gaudin (the Yanks current 4th starter) hasn't started in over a month. And Sabathia has proven he can pitch well on 3 days. Going for the jugular is the right call.

That said, if the Phillies somehow pull out tonight's game, the momentum clearly shifts back into Philadelphia's favor, and Manuel looks like a genius.

Tomorrow, we look back at game 4, and preview game 5.