Yankee Rotation Worries

Worried about the 2011 New York Yankees starting rotation? If you're like most Yankee fans, the answer is probably "yes". But should you be worried? I say no.

The Yankees won 95 games last season with a VERY suspect starting rotation - of course, no one thought that this time last year, but that's how it turned out. They essentially had 2 1/2 starters - C.C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes and Andy Pettitte for a half a season. The rest of the starts went to A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez (both with ERAs well over 5.00) and while Pettitte was out, Dustin Moseley. Sergio Mitre and Ivan Nova also made a few starts.

Going into this season, the Yankee rotation is also suspect. But will it be worse than the 2010 rotation that contributed to a 95 win season? Not a chance.

Let's compare 2010 with what we'll likely see in 2011. In the #1 rotation slot, CC Sabathia will be CC Sabathia. You can pretty much mark CC down for his usual season. In CC's 35 starts, look for around 18-22 wins.

Phil Hughes won 18 games last year, with an all-star first half and a sub-par second half, most likely because Hughes pitched the most innings of his career. Hughes is still young, and I expect an improvement in 2011 - 17-19 wins is a good bet.

A.J. Burnett had a horrific season in 2010, yet stayed in the staring rotation the entire season. He was 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA. Could he possibly be worse in 2011? I doubt it. I look for A.J. to bounce back to his usual 13 win season, with an ERA around 4.50. And if he pitches like he did last year? The Yankees will surely have a shorter leash this time.

Javier Vazquez gave A.J. a run for his money as the worst Yankee starter in 2010. He was 10-10 with a 5.32 ERA. Freddy Garcia, his likely successor in 2011, won't come close to being that bad. Knock a full run off that ERA, and add about 4 wins for this season. He was 12-6 with a 4.64 ERA in homer-friendly Chicago last year - my guess is 14-8 in New York with a 4.30. We will see...

So that's 4 starters, and an estimated 5-7 win improvement in 2011. That brings us to #5, who for the purposes of this argument, will be replacing Andy Pettitte, who went 11-3 with a 3.23 ERA in 2010 (Dustin Moseley added 4 wins while he was on the DL). Enter rookie Ivan Nova (the likely 5th starter), who was brilliant in 4-inning stints in his September 2010 audition. Will he match the 15 wins of Pettitte & Moseley? Probably not. But 10-12 wins certainly isn't out of the question.

What does all this mean? It means Yankee fans are stressing out for no reason at all. The starting pitchers will be BETTER than last year, even if Brian Cashman doesn't add a starter at the trading deadline. The offense will likely be better (with bounce-back years from at least two of these guys: Jeter, A-rod, Teixeira and a DH-rested Posada), and the bullpen will be better with the addition of Rafael Soriano.

My prediction: the Yankees once again win 95-100 games, and at least the American League Wild Card. Whether they win the division will depend on if the Red Sox are as good as advertised. I'll save the Boston arguement for a later post.